Enrollment and Population Projections

We have been asked about the enrollment and population projections for Amherst and the elementary schools. Here is some basic data about population projections; we have not analyzed this data.

  • Amherst Elementary School Projections:
    • 2016 budget: Enrollment Projections / Trends begins p.154 : “Historically, enrollments for subsequent school years are projected each October 1, based on actual enrollments for the current year using a cohort survival method. This method utilizes a rolling five-year enrollment average in order to establish a survival factor; that is, the variable increase or decrease in the average serves to project enrollments into the next few years. This is an established, reliable method of conducting projections. However, the most challenging level to predict is that of incoming kindergarten students. The Town Census does not capture all of the four-year olds in Amherst and typically fails to report 35% to 40% of the kindergarteners that report to school in subsequent years. “
    • Annual Reports
    • DESE
  • Massachusetts Population Projections, 2015 – 2035, from the UMass Donahue Institute; based on US Census Reports. The linked spreadsheet breaks it down further by region, town, age, sex, and race.
  • “County Characteristics, 2015 Estimates”, at Mass Benchmarks, June 23, 2016.
  • “Long-Term Population Projections for Massachusetts Regions and Municipalities”, Henry Renski & Susan Strate, Donahue Institute, March 2015.